Today is the day half the country has looked forward to for 8 years, while the other half has been dreading for the past 2 1/2 months. We’ve all spent far too long guessing what the new President & Congress will mean for the economy & the markets. Notice I said GUESSING. Nobody can say with any sort of confidence how much of an impact the proposed polices will have on growth (see Warning: Changes Ahead!)
What we do know is the expectations are quite high. In fact, looking at the Consumer Confidence index and the stock market we can see President Trump inheriting nearly the opposite environment as to that President Obama received. 8 years ago confidence & stock values were quite low and most did not have much “hope” despite electing the candidate that promised “hope & change”. Ironically, NOT implementing those radical changes is actually what has sparked one of the longest running bull markets & economic expansions.
Whatever the next four or eight years bring, it is always tough to succeed when expectations are already near extremes. Since the markets & economy are run by humans, we should be concerned if those humans become disappointed when President Trump and the Republican Congress do not return us to the “glory days” of Ronald Reagan. All I can say to President Trump, his advisers, and the Republican leadership in Congress is — “good luck!”