In a world where economic certainties are increasingly rare, the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut announcement and the so-called “agreement” between the U.S. and China offer only temporary relief from deeper, long-term challenges. The markets may cheer short-term wins, but beneath the surface, unprecedented monetary stimulus, fragile global
I'm traveling this week and over the next several weeks will be speaking at some conferences to give our assessment of the economy, markets, and our "outlook" for the year ahead. Long-time readers know that we do not make forecasts (since we follow the data and the data will change)
"Boom, Bubble, or Both" was the lead article in our quarterly newsletter. With the market staging the strongest rally following a 15% sell-off since 2001 (prior to that it was 1998) and remaining on pace for another 15%+ year, we've been seeing more and more people wanting to chase the
As we wrap up September and head into the final quarter of the year, markets continue to be shaped by a mix of monetary policy shifts, economic resilience, and political uncertainty. Last week brought a rate cut from the Fed, fresh record highs in stocks, and renewed trade tensions—all
Last week’s market headlines offered a masterclass in economic complexity, with every story weaving into the next. The focus of course going into the week was the Fed’s rate cut which set the tone, sparking volatility across stocks and bonds and raising fresh questions about inflation’s staying
