A Behavioral Approach to Investing
Using Scientifically Engineered Models
The stock market continues to trade around record highs. We saw strong GDP growth, some impressive corporate earnings, a big spike in travel, and some large areas announcing full re-openings in the coming months. The news and data last week should have led to some stronger stock market returns. The
I've enjoyed the celebrations the past few weeks about how far we've come in the past year. I'm as excited as everyone about our ability to emerge from the pandemic. So many positive things happened in the past year. We of course have had many negative things happen.
The problem
Most of the country is experiencing the coldest temperatures of the winter, which is fitting given the current state of the economy.
The market is ignoring the current data and focusing on the months ahead. They are fully pricing in a tremendous recovery based on three things:
Modeling the economy is especially difficult. It's over $20 Trillion and has hundreds of moving parts. I created our economic model back in 1995, a time when I had to go to the library to get the data out of a book once a quarter. By 1998 I could access
As we enter the final month of 2020 many investors will be making plans for 2021. I could write several thousand words listing all the things we should be considering. Instead, I thought we'd use my favorite tool – a 2-column list to look at the current market environment.
As I've
