If you've been following the markets as long as I have nothing really surprises you. The biggest thing I've learned is the market does not always makes sense depending on what data or framework you are using. The 'consensus' focus may be different than what you believe matters most. This
I've spent a lot of time the past few months discussing the way our brains work and how that is impacting our assessment of the current environment. Our role here is to use data to help us focus on what matters and what is just a bunch of noise. I
One of the comments following the jobs report last week was, the labor market is 'normalizing'. That led me to question, 'what is normal?'
We completely shut down the physical economy in 2020 to fight a global pandemic. Congress and the White House (from both political parties) voted to
The 'new economy' we discussed last week took a hit. A weaker than expected jobs report sent stocks higher for most of the day on Friday. This followed the largest sell-off since April of this year after Fitch downgraded the US credit rating. Interest rates on Treasury Bonds
2023 started with forecasts of such a sharp economic slowdown the Federal Reserve would not only stop raising rates but would cut them before the end of the year. As consumers continue to spend money despite high inflation and high interest rates the forecasts have now shifted to no recession
