As a parent of 6 and grandfather to soon to be 4 grandchildren, I've used the phrase, "be careful what you wish for" more times than I can remember. As somebody who has been following the investment markets for over 30 years, I have used that phrase during a few
Tag: SEM Model Update
Is the economy growing or shrinking? Is inflation too high or coming down? Is job growth too hot or too cold? Are the markets healthy or at risk?
The answer to all of those questions is "yes*"!
Note the * which is the problem – the answer depends on your situation – what
Jerome Powell is a wizard. He has continuously been wrong yet whenever he says something the market (temporarily) believes he has the ability to predict our economic future. At the last Fed meeting in April, Chair Powell said the Fed was 'not far' from the first rate cut. At the
When helping clients, advisors, and students understand the market I often say, "the market is a forward looking mechanism". Essentially today's prices are the present value of all future income streams. This requires a lot of projections (guessing) about what will come in the future. Interest rate levels and inflation
With each economic report released, it is getting more and more difficult to find anybody on Wall Street who can find anything bad to say. Everyone (including our economic model) was predicting a slowdown or outright recession in 2023 due to the dual pressures of inflation and the fastest Fed