Last week’s market headlines offered a masterclass in economic complexity, with every story weaving into the next. The focus of course going into the week was the Fed’s rate cut which set the tone, sparking volatility across stocks and bonds and raising fresh questions about inflation’s staying
The Federal Reserve made a major pivot last week in their policy. After declaring 'mission accomplished' in their inflation fight, the Fed almost immediately shifted to stimulation mode over growth concerns and a slowdown in the labor market. As we stated in our most recent economic update, yes growth is
This week the Federal Reserve is expected to do what they first hinted at 11 months ago – to cut interest rates. They have already declared "mission accomplished" in their inflation fight. The market is programmed to initially celebrate any sign of Fed policy easing. On paper it makes sense. If
The problem with a Federal Reserve who says they are both 'data-driven' but calls the data 'noisy' is it is difficult to determine whether or not the most recent data will change their mind. Their track record in predicting things like an implosion of a tech stock bubble, a financial
Following the release of the Fed's 'preferred' inflation measure Personal Consumption Index (PCE) Price Deflator last week, both the bulls and the bears had something to point to to make their case. The bulls highlighted the continued decrease in the year-over-year inflation levels (now 2.4% versus 5.2% a
