I'm traveling this week and over the next several weeks will be speaking at some conferences to give our assessment of the economy, markets, and our "outlook" for the year ahead. Long-time readers know that we do not make forecasts (since we follow the data and the data will change)
"Boom, Bubble, or Both" was the lead article in our quarterly newsletter. With the market staging the strongest rally following a 15% sell-off since 2001 (prior to that it was 1998) and remaining on pace for another 15%+ year, we've been seeing more and more people wanting to chase the
As we wrap up September and head into the final quarter of the year, markets continue to be shaped by a mix of monetary policy shifts, economic resilience, and political uncertainty. Last week brought a rate cut from the Fed, fresh record highs in stocks, and renewed trade tensions—all
Stocks kicked off last week at record highs, fueled by optimism that the four key risks SEM outlined in our latest quarterly update—Trade War, Economic Slowdown, Debt & Deficit, and Geopolitical Conflict—were finally fading from the headlines.
That
Like a sprinter who suddenly finds a moving sidewalk underfoot, the market raced through the last full week of July with an extra jolt of speed it didn’t seem to need. Hints of a tariff truce with Europe, fresh
