Welcome to the last days of this election cycle. Even if it doesn’t go the way you hope it goes, I always feel a sense of relief when it’s all over. The way that elections are run these days with the constant money being spent on ads, most of which in these final days being negative, leaves me extremely exhausted afterwards. We know, of course, that this isn’t going to be the end of days. Our country is going to survive. So, if you are stressed about how Tuesday is going to go, just remember that, and that the fear and anger the ads are trying to get out of you is likely extremely exaggerated.
The polls of the last couple weeks haven’t really been that helpful, but we have to be careful about the results of the polls because of the history they have about “being wrong”. So, a few polls that are looking close and almost mirroring each other doesn’t necessarily confirm that that is the correct result to consider.
Well, there were two major polls published entering the final week before the election, one collaboration from the New York Times and Siena, and another from CNN. Both showed potentially alarming results.
So, while there are 35 senate races, 36 governor races, and 435 house races taking place this election, on top of countless state and local elections and ballot measures, the focus has been on the senate since 1) those are the races that will affect all of us since they’re at the federal level, and 2) that’s the one that seems to be the most pivotal in terms of the results carrying over into policy for the next 2 years. The house races matter, but it’s much harder to get a good grasp of the data when looking at congressional districts, and the results have shown a heavy edge to Democrats this whole cycle. Governor races COULD tell us about the state, but those tend to be much more focused on local issues than senate races are. Unfortunately you’re on your own in terms of the governor races, as well as all the specific votes that matter to your city, county, and state. Those can matter much more to you than what goes on in Washington, so please take the time to research what positions make the most sense for you in that regard.
Now that I got that out of the way, back to the senate races. We also know that not all the senate races are competitive, and while we still need to count votes in those states, the results of those elections are so heavily favored by one side that it is nearly impossible to have those races flip. Shout out to those in West Virginia and Rhode Island, but your races won’t factor into the balance of power.
The “important race” count, in my opinion, has been 8; Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas. There are a few other states outside of those 8 that have uncertain results, like Florida, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, but I’ve been hesitant in saying those will be fully competitive on election night. Minnesota has been the “most competitive” of those states, and there have even been a few polls published that have had Minnesota close to the margin of error in terms of flipping. It is an open seat, after all. The reason why I never put Minnesota in the group of 8 because 1) it has been the one “blue wall” upper Midwest state that hasn’t ever flipped in the Trump era. In fact, it didn’t flip in the Reagan era. But, it is a Trump election, and while we’ve seen Minnesota be CLOSE in the past couple elections, it hasn’t fully flipped. And when it was close, like in 2016 and 2024, those were more favorable years for Republicans. The landscape is different in this election, and while some polls have shown a close race in Minnesota, the recent NY Times poll Democrat Peggy Flanagan up 14 points over former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya. I’m going to go ahead and say Republicans won’t be flipping Minnesota.
The same poll shed some light in Florida, which has rapidly shifted redder in the Trump era, and has more or less been expected to keep the trend in this election. The same NY Times poll asked Florida voters, and it actually was closer than anticipated, with only a 6-point margin favoring the Republican candidate. That 6-point margin will probably be too much for the Democrat to overcome, so Florida will stay red, but maybe Florida will be closer than we thought.
Minnesota staying blue and Florida staying red sounds like a not great use of time spent typing about the important news of this election. But the last result of this NY Times poll was actually alarming; it had a tie in South Carolina, which wasn’t even on my radar. This poll isn’t completely out of left field, as some less reliable polls have showed a somewhat close election, but this result so far has been the biggest “October Surprise” I’ve come across. While I’m still going to err on the side of the status quo, the fact that Republicans may be at risk of losing another seat reflects the uphill battle they’ve been facing this election cycle.
But, this isn’t only one poll that was published this week. What about the CNN poll? The CNN poll covered the states that have been getting the most attention this cycle; Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas. 3 of those states are republican-held seats currently, and the democrats need to flip 4 total seats to retake control of the Senate (keep in mind, North Carolina is almost certainly flipping, so they just need 3 more to flip.) Michigan has been the best flipping opportunity for Republicans this cycle, but in this final poll, the Democrat was favored by 7%. Texas had a similar margin, with the Democrat up by 6%. Maine and Kansas both had the Democrats up 4%, which was barely within the margin of error for this poll. This poll does show the advantage the Republicans entered this election cycle with, where even losing Texas isn’t a game clincher as long as they find a way to hold 2 of the ultra-competitive seats. However, the math right now just isn’t in their favor. The Ohio special election, which is taking place because of JD Vance’s promotion to VP, hasn’t looked good in any poll for Republicans, and while it’s not in the lock territory like North Carolina is, is extremely likely to flip. It’s looking unlikely that they flip Michigan, Minnesota, or New Hampshire, which means that they now need to hold onto ALL of the remaining competitive states, which is Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, and now South Carolina. You’re asking a lot to be going your way on election night, which I would say is far too unlikely. We’re to the point in this election cycle where there likely won’t be any news that will affect the outcomes of the voters. Unfortunately for Republicans, there hasn’t been any positive sentiment voters have been able to gather, as most view the President unfavorably, and most saying the economy isn’t good. Both of those feelings will show up on Election Night, the question will simply be how much will that show up.
The range of outcomes, as far as I’m concerned can look like this if Republicans get the best-case outcome:
Only losing one net seat would be a massive win for Republicans, but this would rely on winning races they’re expected to lose in, including Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas. I still don’t think in this best-case scenario there is enough to swing Minnesota or Ohio blue.
The best-case scenario for Democrats, of course, would fall into the “Blue Wave” territory:
This is a map that would make Republicans glad that they kept the filibuster. I said we would cross the Nebraska bridge if we ever got there, and I don’t think we will, but Nebraska is really only competitive because Democrats realized the state would be too red to vote for a true Democrat, so they instead endorsed an Independent. I, for one, would still be shocked if that actually happens, but it’s an interesting thought for those in highly partisan states moving forward if the move pays off.
Of course, the ACTUAL outcome will certainly come somewhere in the middle. If you’re asking me, which you shouldn’t because I’m not a professional so please don’t go to the bank with this, I would think the results look like this:
I just updated this Friday morning after a poll published for the Kansas race. Now I would be very surprised if Kansas flips blue, as it’d be by far the most Trump state to flip blue, but that’s what the polling data is saying.
Now, there are scenarios here where some states (Alaska and Maine would be my guess) will take much longer to count their votes. I’m just warning you now. That doesn’t mean something fishy is going on, it just means that those states could take longer because of how everything is set up there. Just the fun of being in a country of states with their own state rules. Anyway, I hope everyone stays sane and has a safe and stress-free Election Day. We will be here with you after it’s all done, like we have been before.
