Below Average or New Normal?

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 19, 2016 • 0 Comments

From the Fed, to the Congressional Budget Office, to most mainstream economists, “average”, “trend” , or “normal” growth is assumed to be around 3%. During this economic recovery we’ve only seen GDP growth exceed the “normal” rate once……out of 28 quarters. In addition, GDP growth seemed to peak shortly after QE3 ended at the beginning of 2015.

Is this a “new normal” or should we expect growth to again return to 3%? Check out “Broken Model” for the answer.

What should we expect for the economy in the shorter-term and how might the Fed react? For those answers, check out our latest Economic Update.

About Jeff Hybiak, CFA

New Kent, VA

Jeff joined SEM in October 1998. Outside of SEM, Jeff is part of the worship team at LifePointe Christian Church where he plays the keyboard and bass guitar. He also coaches a club soccer team.

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About the Blog

The purpose of SEM’s Traders Blog is to provide simple explanations about the current market environment. It is designed to give advisors talking points about the market and for individual investors to better understand what is happening.

Each week SEM posts a Chart of the Week to illustrate one aspect of the market in a different way than you might hear in the mainstream financial media. Throughout the week other posts will be made depending on the volatility, news events, or changes in SEM’s Scientifically Engineered Models