“Recency” bias, or the more formal term “availability” bias is something we have observed at SEM for years with our client and advisor base. The human brain by design more easily recalls the more recent events and then sets future expectations around these memories. The longer
Whether it is an objective measurement of a bubble using past valuation levels or our own subjective observation of investor behavior, it is clear we are in some sort of a bubble.
How can you (or your clients) avoid participating in the next market crash?
Like we warned in May when the “sell in May” advice was going around, making investment decisions solely based on the calendar can be detrimental to your success. Those that did move to the sidelines in May missed a volatile start and end to the summer as
This week Business Insider had a chart illustrating just how bad the Fed has been at predicting where interest rates will be (you know the very thing the Fed controls). Keep in mind, their interest rate forecasts are based on their predictions for the economy, so
After celebrating the “no rate hike” announcement from the Fed Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, market participants seem to be shifting their attention to the REASON the Fed didn’t raise rates — economic growth is again decelerating.
While the fact remains my economic indicators
