One thing we learned in 1999 and 2000 was that no matter how many signs are pointing towards recession, the true pain will not start until the market participants realize all is not well. That can go on for months. It usually takes a major news event or a series
We are seeing a surge in delinquent loans at commercial banks. As this chart shows, that typically means we would see a spike in high yield bond spreads (meaning high yield prices would drop.)
The fact that this has yet to happen should not be reason
Stock markets are usually described as being a “bull” or a “bear”, but a different animal could be used to describe the current market.
I’m not sure when the terms “bull” or “bear” market were first used, but they are
For nearly every person still alive, we’ve been conditioned to believe the government and Federal Reserve can “stimulate” our economy out of recession by simply increasing spending and lowering interest rates. While this textbook theory continues to be gospel for nearly every economist, few are
Earnings are again in focus as companies report their latest quarterly results. Long-time readers know that I come from an accounting background & have been a critic of the reporting methods used by these companies. Even more aggravating is the fact Wall Street is not only allowing it,
