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Stimulus & Growth

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 05, 2016 • 0 Comments
Stimulus & Growth

Stimulus & Economic Growth Since Recession

$741,198 spent for every 1 job added.

 

Assuming those jobs paid the average hourly wage of $25.69 and each worker worked the average 34.5 hours per week, the average annual income would by $46,088.

 

Not counting interest payments on the debt used to generate

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Chart of the Week,debt,Jobs,stimulus

Where's the Growth?

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 01, 2016 • 0 Comments
Where's the Growth?

2nd Quarter GDP growth again fell below expectations.  While many market participants view this as good news as it may keep the Fed from raising rates in the near future, sooner or later the lack of growth should hurt stock prices.

The Fed assumes the economy will return to

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Budget Deficit,Consumer Sentiment,debt,GDP,Housing,Medicare,Social Security

The Pending Forest Fire

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • July 30, 2016 • 0 Comments
The Pending Forest Fire
One thing we learned in 1999 and 2000 was that no matter how many signs are pointing towards recession, the true pain will not start until the market participants realize all is not well.  That can go on for months.  It usually takes a major news event or a series
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Federal Reserve,forest fire,Weekend Reading

Delinquencies & High Yield Spreads

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • July 29, 2016 • 0 Comments
Delinquencies & High Yield Spreads

 

We are seeing a surge in delinquent loans at commercial banks.  As this chart shows, that typically means we would see a spike in high yield bond spreads (meaning high yield prices would drop.) 

 

The fact that this has yet to happen should not be reason

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Chart of the Week

The Ostrich Market

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • July 25, 2016 • 0 Comments
The Ostrich Market

Stock markets are usually described as being a “bull” or a “bear”, but a different animal could be used to describe the current market.

I’m not sure when the terms “bull” or “bear” market were first used, but they are

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debt,Defaults,High Yield Bonds,Long-term returns,Mauldin,Pensions,QE,Yield Spread
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The purpose of SEM’s Traders Blog is to provide simple explanations about the current market environment. It is designed to give advisors talking points about the market and for individual investors to better understand what is happening.

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