When helping clients, advisors, and students understand the market I often say, "the market is a forward looking mechanism". Essentially today's prices are the present value of all future income streams. This requires a lot of projections (guessing) about what will come in the future. Interest rate levels and inflation
With each economic report released, it is getting more and more difficult to find anybody on Wall Street who can find anything bad to say. Everyone (including our economic model) was predicting a slowdown or outright recession in 2023 due to the dual pressures of inflation and the fastest Fed
The nice part about using a quantitative approach is we don't have to ask questions when the data disagrees with our opinion. The data is the only thing that matters. As we wrap up another month for SEM's economic model, I'll give you the conclusion first – the economic data says
We've said it many times – when the Federal Reserve has spent too much time focusing on bailing out the stock market anytime there is a 5% drop in stocks, sometimes the market does not react like you think it would.
During the 4th quarter of last year, stocks staged a
Normal is a relative term. The definition even says "usual, average, or typical state or condition." For the past 4 years we've been living in anything but normal conditions with the pandemic, unprecedented actions to fight the pandemic (both health and economic policies), and then the fight to control the
