[Updated 5/18/2020] On Tuesday night, March 31, President Trump's press conference was pretty dire. He had already backed-up on his plan to "open the country" on Easter Sunday (April 12), saying we should stick to the CDC's recommendation to "shelter in place" through April 30. That guidance has
Investors don’t like surprises. Especially when everybody was having such a good time. In January our lead article was titled “Party Like It’s 1999!” We discussed the extreme valuations in the market and the euphoria we saw creating significant amounts of risk in the
At least here in Virginia this is the 3rd week of the Coronavirus panic. I had to check the calendar. 3 weeks ago I had just returned from my quarterly trip to our Tucson office. Friday evening they decided to cancel soccer games for just that weekend. Our schools were
Stocks are looking to have the best week since the 1930s. Of course this follows the worst week since the same time frame. The constant theme I continue to hear is "stocks are now undervalued" or "this is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity". The people saying this must
The bear market of 2020 is unprecedented. The pace of the decline has exceeded all records, including the steep fall in 1929. While the move is unprecedented, the reason we only use quantitative models at SEM is this allows us to not guess about the next move and how to
