Last week the stock market got what it wanted. A month ago, it looked like it wasn't going to get its wish. Then a surprising twist happened and suddenly the market appeared to get everything it was asking for. Just the thought of receiving this Christmas wish was enough
The AI Echo, The K-Shaped Split, and The Debt Trap
Last week we hosted our annual year-end economic and market outlook. We've done versions of this every fall for as long as I can remember. Fall is also a busy time for conferences and this is a
When Jesus spoke of the man who built his house on sand, He wasn’t warning us about construction codes. Instead, He was warning about the danger of confidence without substance; about basing your beliefs on something that has no stability. A foundation that looks solid in calm weather can
In a world where economic certainties are increasingly rare, the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut announcement and the so-called “agreement” between the U.S. and China offer only temporary relief from deeper, long-term challenges. The markets may cheer short-term wins, but beneath the surface, unprecedented monetary
I'm traveling this week and over the next several weeks will be speaking at some conferences to give our assessment of the economy, markets, and our "outlook" for the year ahead. Long-time readers know that we do not make forecasts (since we follow the data and the data
