We continue to see a market that is afraid of commitment. A growing number of institutional investors are openly questioning the Fed’s ability to stimulate the economy. The Fed’s inability to forecast the last crisis, even after it had already started has led some
What should we expect from the economy over the short & long-term?
What does this mean for the Fed and their interest rate decisions?
Most importantly, how should investors be positioned?
I’ve been struggling lately to get a feel for what the market participants are focusing on. Sometimes it’s easy to see the theme, other times it’s not.
Over the weekend I went through every link on my links page (now called
We find it surprising that so many people trust what the Fed says about the economy. They have had a less than stellar track record at both predicting the recession and the severity of that recession, yet for some reason the markets continue to have faith in both their ability
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when&
