Afraid to Commit

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 15, 2016 • 0 Comments

I’ve been struggling lately to get a feel for what the market participants are focusing on. Sometimes it’s easy to see the theme, other times it’s not.

Over the weekend I went through every link on my links page (now called

In Fed We Trust?

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 14, 2016 • 0 Comments

We find it surprising that so many people trust what the Fed says about the economy. They have had a less than stellar track record at both predicting the recession and the severity of that recession, yet for some reason the markets continue to have faith in both their ability

Irrational Exuberance

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • August 08, 2016 • 0 Comments

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when&

The Pending Forest Fire

By Jeff Hybiak, CFA • July 30, 2016 • 0 Comments

One thing we learned in 1999 and 2000 was that no matter how many signs are pointing towards recession, the true pain will not start until the market participants realize all is not well. That can go on for months. It usually takes a major news event or a series

About the Blog

The purpose of SEM’s Traders Blog is to provide simple explanations about the current market environment. It is designed to give advisors talking points about the market and for individual investors to better understand what is happening.

Each week SEM posts a Chart of the Week to illustrate one aspect of the market in a different way than you might hear in the mainstream financial media. Throughout the week other posts will be made depending on the volatility, news events, or changes in SEM’s Scientifically Engineered Models