Unprecedented actions lead to unprecedented consequences. Back in April 2007, I wrote one of our most popular articles, "The Pending Forest Fire". At the time people thought we were crazy. Everything was booming. Real estate, stocks, the job market. We were in a new era where the Federal Reserve was
Minus a 6-8 week bump in the road during COVID, stocks have been going up nearly non-stop for 11 years. We did see a couple of "slowdown" scares in late 2015 and again in 2018, but with hindsight those were buying opportunities. Both of the slowdowns came at a time
For most of the year the focus has been on the Russian invasion of Ukraine (rightly so). This may have caused some big swings in the stock market, but this focus has hidden the real risk to the nearly 2-year stock market rally. In
The first quarter generated plenty of news and market fluctuations. We saw some of the worst losses as well as the biggest gains since 2020. Long-term bond yields jumped nearly 1% and the Federal Reserve finally decided it was time to pull back their COVID stimulus. Sentiment plummeted in the
The stock market is back to its highest levels since early February. 10-year bond yields have climbed 1% since the start of the year and are at the highest level since early 2019. Last week we asked who was right – stock or bond traders. The stock market believes the Fed
