Moving into the second half of 2021 I thought it would be timely to take a walk through SEM's Economic Model to give us an idea of where we stand economically. The markets are obviously pricing in a spectacular recovery and we won't know until the fall what the economy
The economic recovery should be back in full force with anybody who wanted to be vaccinated already receiving their vaccinations, the CDC essentially saying those who are vaccinated can do whatever they want, the number of new COVID cases at very low levels, and pretty much every state fully lifting
Have we reached the end? Just as March 2020 marked the beginning of the COVID19 economic shock, March 2021 could go down as the end of the shock. As vaccine distribution hit critical mass, the weather turned nicer in the southern states, and yet another round of stimulus checks hit
"The Fed controls short-term rates. The free market controls long-term rates. If the free market decides rates should be higher, they will go higher."
This is something I've said often since 2008. Most people believe the Fed can do whatever they want with interest rates. That is simply not true.
Whether when investing or just life in general there are all kinds of things that can go wrong. We can often reduce the damage of those risks, but not all the time. However, it's usually the things we cannot see that hurt us the most.
With most of the country
