Despite the much better than expected payrolls report, nearly all of the economic data in our model is showing signs of stalling out. Our economic model has been "bearish" since April 2022 after going "neutral" in October 2021. Our model isn't designed to call the beginning of a recession or
Throughout the last 6 months, the stock market has been hoping for a "goldilocks" scenario. With the Fed raising interest rates aggressively to fight inflation, the market participants were looking for any sign the economy was slowing enough to cool inflation, which in turn would lead the Fed to backing
Based on the January jobs report, our economy is heating up. In theory this is a good thing, but based on the fact the driver to the strong start to the year was the idea we were in a "Goldilocks" economy that is not a good thing. "Goldilocks" in economic
Wall Street likes to throw around a lot of terms as they attempt to form a narrative for their clients. Often times the narrative begins to shape the analysis done by those firms. For instance, I mentioned last week the forecasts for the top Wall Street firms. JPMorgan & BMO
"It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done." - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, November 30, 2022
The above statement is the only
