2023 started with forecasts of such a sharp economic slowdown the Federal Reserve would not only stop raising rates but would cut them before the end of the year. As consumers continue to spend money despite high inflation and high interest rates the forecasts have now shifted to no recession
2022 was the worst year for stocks since the financial crisis. The year started with the worst performers of 2022 posting some impressive results the first 5 weeks of the year. After, the inevitable bounceback reality set in. There were plenty of risks in play – a looming recession, on-going Fed
Despite the much better than expected payrolls report, nearly all of the economic data in our model is showing signs of stalling out. Our economic model has been "bearish" since April 2022 after going "neutral" in October 2021. Our model isn't designed to call the beginning of a recession or
Throughout the last 6 months, the stock market has been hoping for a "goldilocks" scenario. With the Fed raising interest rates aggressively to fight inflation, the market participants were looking for any sign the economy was slowing enough to cool inflation, which in turn would lead the Fed to backing
Based on the January jobs report, our economy is heating up. In theory this is a good thing, but based on the fact the driver to the strong start to the year was the idea we were in a "Goldilocks" economy that is not a good thing. "Goldilocks" in economic
