Throughout the 2023-2024 rally we've had two competing sides. The bulls have argued the gains have been justified because earnings, especially in technology companies have been accelerating. The bears have countered that even with the technology earnings increases, overall market valuations are hitting levels only seen during the end of
Jerome Powell is a wizard. He has continuously been wrong yet whenever he says something the market (temporarily) believes he has the ability to predict our economic future. At the last Fed meeting in April, Chair Powell said the Fed was 'not far' from the first rate cut. At the
With each economic report released, it is getting more and more difficult to find anybody on Wall Street who can find anything bad to say. Everyone (including our economic model) was predicting a slowdown or outright recession in 2023 due to the dual pressures of inflation and the fastest Fed
The nice part about using a quantitative approach is we don't have to ask questions when the data disagrees with our opinion. The data is the only thing that matters. As we wrap up another month for SEM's economic model, I'll give you the conclusion first – the economic data says
We've said it many times – when the Federal Reserve has spent too much time focusing on bailing out the stock market anytime there is a 5% drop in stocks, sometimes the market does not react like you think it would.
During the 4th quarter of last year, stocks staged a
