"The Fed controls short-term rates. The free market controls long-term rates. If the free market decides rates should be higher, they will go higher."
This is something I've said often since 2008. Most people believe the Fed can do whatever they want with interest rates. That is simply not true.
Most of the country is experiencing the coldest temperatures of the winter, which is fitting given the current state of the economy.
The market is ignoring the current data and focusing on the months ahead. They are fully pricing in a tremendous recovery based on three things:
We all know simply changing the calendar doesn't change the environment, but after enduring all the terrible things we faced in 2020, most of us were hoping 2021 would be nothing but good news. That hope was shattered on the 6th day of the year last week. I think we've
Winter has arrived here in Virginia. We woke up to snow flurries south of Richmond. You'd think with virtual school there would be no more snow days, but that is not the case apparently even with the snow not sticking to the pavement and expected to be done by 10
This morning we woke up to some encouraging news on a Coronavirus vaccine. 35 weeks after the US began to panic, it seems investors/speculators are banking on a huge economic comeback. We'll leave the speculation to them and stick to the data.
