Officially the economy grew at a 4.3% rate in the 3rd quarter and by some estimates may (officially) grow at a 5.3% rate in the 4th quarter. You would think we'd see all of the leading economic indicators humming along, but other than stock prices and the
The Federal Reserve often says they are "data dependent". This often leads to confusion and hyper-focus on every data release as the market speculates what it means for the next Fed meeting. Most of November saw a drop in stock prices after the Fed pushed back on the thought
The labor market continues to show signs of strain. While the headline payroll number didn’t move much, digging into the details reveals a troubling trend. Job growth has essentially stalled over the last three months......something that historically happens just before or during a recession. We’re not
Why do we even bother listening to the Federal Reserve? Even if we ignore all of their failings in the late 1990s and again before, during, and after the financial crisis, let's look at how terrible the Fed has been at predicting the post-COVID economy.
Throughout 2021, the
I often tell people the thing that causes the NEXT market correction is rarely something any of us predicted. There are usually outside forces that can impact the markets. Often it is the REACTION to the EXPECTED event that causes collateral damage. It's far too early to look into
