Investor behavior is fascinating to watch. While we all have implicit biases in how we analyze the market environment, the bias which causes the most damage is "overconfidence". Most humans overestimate their ability to both forecast the future as well as to adapt to new information. Ironically, the higher the
"We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done......While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.......In current circumstances,
Last week was a roller coaster that required nearly nightly updates to the Monday Morning Musings. This was mostly due to the angst and uncertainty over the Fed meeting. With the 2%+ move off the lows in the last hour on Friday, the S&P 500 eked out a
Depending on where you live, you've had your hoodies and flannels out for several weeks or they are still gathering dust in your closet. Here in eastern Virginia, our fall clothes are finally going to make their debut this week after a spectacularly warm fall.
I thought that was fitting
I've often used the analogy of treating a cancer patient to describe how our monetary and fiscal policy leaders have treated a recession. A doctor has two goals when treating cancer. The first is the most obvious — eliminate the tumor. The second is to make the patient as comfortable as
