Investor behavior is fascinating to watch. While we all have implicit biases in how we analyze the market environment, the bias which causes the most damage is "overconfidence". Most humans overestimate their ability to both forecast the future as well as to adapt to new information. Ironically, the higher the
"We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done......While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.......In current circumstances,
The S&P 500 just posted its best month since November 2020. This has led many market 'experts' to declare the "Bear Market" over, marking it up as just a temporary bump in our recovery from the pandemic. The month closed with another impressive week, which included yet another
Last week was a roller coaster that required nearly nightly updates to the Monday Morning Musings. This was mostly due to the angst and uncertainty over the Fed meeting. With the 2%+ move off the lows in the last hour on Friday, the S&P 500 eked out a
I'm not sure where 2021 went. Plenty will be written this week and next in the various financial publications about the year, with plenty more written about what the next year will look like. I won't waste your time looking at either of those things this week. One because a
