This week my second favorite leading economic indicator was released and it immediately threw cold water on my optimistic outlook. Two weeks ago, I posted our economic model showing a continued bullish uptrend for the next several months. Building Permits and Housing Starts tend to be a very early leading
Tariffs and Trade Wars are dominating the headlines. Stock market participants are worried and the market indices have been falling every time one of the sides announces a new tariff or other restrictions on trade. Whenever markets start falling emotions begin to take over. The logic is “stocks dropped
The stock market is again on shaky ground as the Trump Administration is escalating the potential for a heated trade war with China. They announced the initial shots in March, which was matched by China with their own tariffs (even though China already charges heavy tariffs on US goods). Wall
It was 2010 when I first began having to answer concerns about rising interest rates. The media had picked up on the Wall Street story that rates were destined to rise which was bad for bonds. Their recommendation was to sell bonds and buy stocks. Focusing only on returns this
Unlike the January employment report, the April report did not have any blatant data points that caused a “crash”. With average earnings only rising 0.1% myopic market participants celebrated the lack of wage inflation, hoping this will allow the Fed to take a few more months off
