This year I've marveled about the optimism shown by market participants and Wall Street experts alike who truly believe the Fed has reigned in inflation and would not cause a recession (or even a slowdown in earnings). They also believed the Fed would be stopping their rate hikes soon, which
It's probably hard for most people to understand 25 years ago the Federal Reserve was quite secretive and didn't have the sole (perceived) focus of keeping the stock market afloat. Then in 1998, the Federal Reserve decided to bailout a handful of Wall Street banks who were overexposed to a
Investor behavior is fascinating to watch. While we all have implicit biases in how we analyze the market environment, the bias which causes the most damage is "overconfidence". Most humans overestimate their ability to both forecast the future as well as to adapt to new information. Ironically, the higher the
In today's "always on" society, we've become accustomed to quick actions. We want quick resolutions to problems and believe if something goes on for too long it will "always" be like this. Sometimes it is important to take a step back, study history, unbiased data, and unplug from the constant
For those of you who watched the Super Bowl yesterday, especially if you live on the east coast, I will keep this week's entry brief. I will say the same thing I've been saying for at least 20 years – if Congress wants to do something (or the President wants to
