Despite the much better than expected payrolls report, nearly all of the economic data in our model is showing signs of stalling out. Our economic model has been "bearish" since April 2022 after going "neutral" in October 2021. Our model isn't designed to call the beginning of a recession or
We wake up this morning with news of the 2nd largest bank failure in the history of our country. Interestingly enough, this is not being looked at as a major move by investors. After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March and the swift actions by the Fed, FDIC,
Sometimes I have a lot of topics to discuss on this page, other times I cannot think of much to say at all. Today is the latter. I'm not sure how many different ways I can say the same thing:
The stock market is supposed to be "efficient", at least according to academics (and those firms who have bought into this theory). Supposedly, the market (mostly) reflects all known information. In my experience this is not even close to reality. There have been dozens of times where we see a
Throughout the last 6 months, the stock market has been hoping for a "goldilocks" scenario. With the Fed raising interest rates aggressively to fight inflation, the market participants were looking for any sign the economy was slowing enough to cool inflation, which in turn would lead the Fed to backing
