Investor behavior is fascinating to watch. While we all have implicit biases in how we analyze the market environment, the bias which causes the most damage is "overconfidence". Most humans overestimate their ability to both forecast the future as well as to adapt to new information. Ironically, the higher the
In today's "always on" society, we've become accustomed to quick actions. We want quick resolutions to problems and believe if something goes on for too long it will "always" be like this. Sometimes it is important to take a step back, study history, unbiased data, and unplug from the constant
For those of you who watched the Super Bowl yesterday, especially if you live on the east coast, I will keep this week's entry brief. I will say the same thing I've been saying for at least 20 years – if Congress wants to do something (or the President wants to
Based on the January jobs report, our economy is heating up. In theory this is a good thing, but based on the fact the driver to the strong start to the year was the idea we were in a "Goldilocks" economy that is not a good thing. "Goldilocks" in economic
All year we've been discussing the extremely optimistic growth outlook driving stock prices higher. Last week more economic data continued the euphoric hope that the Fed is in line to pull off a rare event – control inflation without causing a recession. The release of the first estimate of 4th quarter
