The Federal Reserve has been going out of their way to tell the stock and bond market that they will be focusing solely on taming inflation and won't be looking to stimulate the economy unless inflation is under control. Too much money floating around the system led to too much
Tag: Yield Spread
Talk about conflicting data points. Two weeks ago the data told us we just had our second consecutive decline in economic output (which used to be how we defined a recession). Last week, we learned the labor market fully recovered all of the jobs lost during the short pandemic recession.
Back in 1997, while I was still in college I read a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York titled, “The Yield Curve as a Predictor of US Recessions.” This was in the early days of the development of my economic model, so I studied
Conservatism Bias: A belief preservation bias in which people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information. Conservatism causes individuals to overweight initial beliefs about probabilities and outcomes and under-react to new-information; they fail to modify their beliefs and actions to the extent rationally justified by the
Stock markets are usually described as being a “bull” or a “bear”, but a different animal could be used to describe the current market.
I’m not sure when the terms “bull” or “bear” market were first used, but they are