Back in 1997, while I was still in college I read a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York titled, “The Yield Curve as a Predictor of US Recessions.” This was in the early days of the development of my economic model, so I studied
During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, too many investors learned bonds are not as safe as you might think. Unfortunately, I am seeing a large number of people believing a financial crisis will not happen again in their lifetimes. Some believe everyone learned their lesson from the last crisis, while others
The S&P 500 on Tuesday briefly eclipsed its all-time high. This led to all-day coverage on CNBC and Bloomberg of this “great feat”, followed by the financial media picking up on this story. I wouldn’t have earned the nickname “Mr. Sunshine” if
Buy after the market goes up. Sell after the market goes down. While that is not the ideal strategy, this is exactly what individual investors have done for as long as the data has been tracked. 2018 has been no different. As the stock market rallied over 7% in January,
The US economy is growing at a “great” (but not historic) rate. This has pushed the S&P 500 all the way back towards the record high it hit in January of this year. My greatest fear is if the market surpasses the highs of January
