Thursday started as a good day. After a slow start to the day, the stock market was staging a nice rally as investors figured one rate cut was better than no rate cuts. Both Treasury bonds and high yield bonds were sharply higher (which isn’t usually the case,
Tag: SEM Model Update
Bad news is good news right now for investors. It seems the uglier the economic data, the more excited they become. The reason, as we cited last week was the belief this will lead to Fed interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. Investors are conditioned to believe anytime the
On Tuesday, stocks posted their best single day jump since December. Earlier in the day, the financial media attributed it to a Chinese official saying the trade dispute with the US should be resolved with “talks”, not retaliatory tariffs. Later in the afternoon, the media said the rally
At the end of April the S&P 500 (barely) reached a new all-time high. The next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the slowdown in the economy is likely “transitory”, which is Fed-speak for temporary. This seemed to remove the prospects from traders’ minds about
The last few months I’ve periodically pointed out some stress points that all investors should be wary of as the economic expansion and bull market approaches record length. While the Federal Reserve capitulated to the constant pressure from the president and Wall Street’s panic in the



