A year ago the title of that week's musings was "What can go wrong?" In it I identified the 4 pillars of the amazing stock market rally: Federal Reserve Support, Congressional Spending, Improving Economy, and the decline of COVID. I followed that with a list of things that could go
Probably one of the most frustrating things for me after 25 years of managing investments is how inefficient the market is at pricing in reality. This leads to far too many people getting sucked into the wrong investments.
Last week we've again witnessed two examples of the inefficiency of the
Unprecedented actions lead to unprecedented consequences. Back in April 2007, I wrote one of our most popular articles, "The Pending Forest Fire". At the time people thought we were crazy. Everything was booming. Real estate, stocks, the job market. We were in a new era where the Federal Reserve was
Minus a 6-8 week bump in the road during COVID, stocks have been going up nearly non-stop for 11 years. We did see a couple of "slowdown" scares in late 2015 and again in 2018, but with hindsight those were buying opportunities. Both of the slowdowns came at a time
For most of the year the focus has been on the Russian invasion of Ukraine (rightly so). This may have caused some big swings in the stock market, but this focus has hidden the real risk to the nearly 2-year stock market rally. In
